Oskar Kihlborg/Volvo Ocean Race
Issued 0400 December 13, 2008
Warnings and Advisories: There are no relevant warnings or advisories for the course area today; however, you should monitor the Indian Department of Meteorology for any developing warnings or advisories.
SYNOPSIS: Overall the winds have been stable over the last week, with a nearly slack pressure gradient in the course area. For today, the large scale synoptic map is showing a weak low to the southwest of India, but otherwise the nearly slack pressure gradient is expected to continue.
Looking a little closer, the big question for today is whether or not any squalls will develop. If it remains mostly sunny, with limited cumulous clouds developing over the mainland, look for a stable sea breeze to fill in the afternoon. In this case you will see max gusts near 10 knots. On the other hand, morning clouds over the mainland could develop into squalls. In this case look for lighter winds, with some stronger outflow gusts if the developed squalls pass close to the course area.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Not much change from the conditions you have seen so far this week. Assuming there are no developing squalls in the area, you can expect light offshore flow in the morning, giving way to a light and variable period, before the sea breeze fills for the afternoon. Look for the sea breeze to stay mainly in the 5-9 knots range, with possible gusts filling to 10 knots.
Weather: Overall you should have a clear and sunny day. You may see some clouds to the south, or east over the mainland. These clouds could develop into afternoon squalls, but this is unlikely. If you have clear skies look for the temperatures to build to about 32C.
Detailed Wind Forecast for start day:
Wind Speed Wind Direction (MAG)Time(LT) Mean Range Mean Range0900 03 01-06 VAR 330-090 ... Some gusts up to 5 knots1000 02 01-06 VAR 320-000 ... Large oscillations-tending to NW'ly1100 04 02-07 270 250-290 ... building cumulus clouds onshore1200 05 04-09 260 240-280 ... Winds may be slower to fill1300 06 04-09 250 240-2801400 07 05-10 260 240-2801500 08 06-11 270 240-2801600 09 07-12 270 240-280 ... Peak wind gusts near 101700 09 06-11 260 230-270 ... Squalls possible - with gusts and large oscillations1800 03 02-07 250 200-260 ... Becoming light and variable
HEDGE: Forecast Confidence -Above Average.
1. Based on the solid model agreement and the stable conditions over the last few days, my confidence in this forecast is high. The only real question lingering over the forecast is whether or not any afternoon squalls will develop.
2. Look for light offshore flow for the morning giving way to a midday lull. You may see some offshore gusts to 5 knots in the early morning, but the winds will quickly drop to light and variable, oscillating between NW'ly and ENE'ly flow
3. Look for a midday lull, with cumulus clouds building to the east. If you have mostly sunny skies on course, you can expect the winds to back left as they build. You may see a weak W'ly fill, and then continue to back left as it builds for the early afternoon. However as the breeze peaks mid afternoon, look for a slight right shift to W'ly. The winds should peak out of the W, around the time of the start (1600)
4. There is a chance that squalls may develop in the afternoon. If you do see any cumulus clouds building vertically and moving west, you should watch for lighter winds on course. With the exception of any short-lived outflow gusts from the squall, developing squalls will make for less of a sea breeze and lighter overall winds. The brief outflow gusts may build to 20 knots; however, any squalls you have are not likely to last long.
5. Assuming you do not have squalls look for the breeze to decrease, continuing to shift left in the late afternoon. By 1800 you may see the breeze shifting to a light S'ly flow
6. As the fleet continues south they will see an increasing chance of thunderstorms.
For those folks staying in Cochin: Sunday you can expect sunshine mixed with a few clouds and only the slightest chance of a shower. The temperatures will remain very warm, reaching into the low 30's C. Wind speeds of 05-07 kts with some puffs to 10 kts are expected through the day Sunday. In the morning the flow looks N/NNE'ly and then a W'ly sea breeze takes over for the afternoon. Monday and Tuesday may see a slightly elevated chance of thunderstorms, but otherwise there are no significant changes expected for the rest of the week.
Jennifer Lilly, Race Meterologist