Jailbreak!

Wednesday 22 October 2008 1000 GMT

THE TEN ZULU REPORT, LEG 1, DAY 12

Green Dragon picked the lock on their cell, slugged a guard, crawled down the sewer, dodged the searchlights, ducked under the wire and tumbled out of the Doldrums yesterday afternoon. The wind finally lurched over 10 knots for Ian Walker and his team about an hour after yesterday’s 16:00 position report, and from then on it was all champagne and roses for the leaders.

Freedom.

By 10:00 ZULU this morning, the Dragon had extended their lead to just over 30 miles from PUMA. The cat was close enough for radar-lock on third placed Ericsson 4, as they settled into chasing the Dragon. The magnetic attraction between PUMA and Ericsson 4 has brought them back together for round two of their mano e mano battle.

Everyone was out into the south-easterly trade winds, which for most of the fleet were already blowing at strengths in the mid-teens. But the squeeze box has uncoiled in the last 24 hours, as the group of boats to the west benefitted from reaching the new wind first.

Chasing the leading pack – and on her own in no man’s land – was Telefonica Black. The group of three behind her is led by her sistership, Telefonica Blue, with Ericsson 3 and Team Russia all coming out of the east. Delta Lloyd was last into the wind, and spent most of yesterday watching the miles unravel at a terrifying rate.

Skipper, Ger O’Rourke commented last night: "Not one GRIB [computer weather] file I have seen was accurate for the Doldrums we have experienced." The eastern Doldrums, the gift that just keeps giving!

The cashier paid out

The pack had one last shuffle yesterday, before the cashier paid out the final mileage on this first encounter with the Doldrums (oh yes, we’re going to do this again, and again, and again ...). Technical Content Warning! At about the time that yesterday’s TEN ZULU was published, the fleet were already starting to see the first signs of a wind shift to the south. I think this was the tropical wave that Race Forecaster, Jennifer Lilly, described in yesterday’s weather forecast.

It hit the eastern boats much harder than those to the west, not entirely surprising as they were already suffering a more southerly breeze, described in yesterday morning’s TEN ZULU. The wind shift finally pooped Telefonica Black’s great escape, (no matter how many times you watch it, he never quite makes it…) when they found themselves going upwind.

At one point, Fernando Echavarri and his men actually had to tack, with the breeze all the way round to 220 – a south-westerly. It wasn’t that bad for too long, but they suffered upwind for most of yesterday, before finally getting clear into the south-easterly in the early evening. All the eastern boats were affected, and you can see the impact on their tracks in the Race Viewer. Meanwhile, back at the ranch-house, all was calm and serene. The western group – Green Dragon, PUMA and Ericsson 4 saw the southerly, but not for much more than an hour. A mere bump over the rumble strip on the edge of the fast lane.

We need to go back a long way to figure out the winners and losers from this first encounter with the Doldrums. It’s a pretty arbitrary call, but there was a moment when everyone was on starboard gybe, north of the Cape Verde Islands, and the leverage across the fleet was quite small (early in the morning of the 17th). I’ve pulled up a graph of the Distance to Leader and Leg Position, running from then to now – and you can see the winners and losers ...

Cash under the mattress – Green Dragon and Telefonica Black

Oil and gas – Telefonica Blue

Bailed out banks – Team Russia, PUMA and Ericsson 4

Sub-prime mortage securities – Delta Lloyd and Ericsson 3

There was plenty of reflection on life, the universe and everything from the boats as they struggled through the final hours of incarceration. Martin Krite, wrote eloquently of the agony last night – "On board Ericsson 3, time stands still ..."

'Our gamble might not pay off'

On Telefonica Blue, Simon Fisher’s frustration was palpable, "... we can see the boats to the west of us slowly gaining on us, ghosting away in just a little more breeze. Our gamble to cross the ITCZ slightly more east looks like it might not pay off ..."

There were also three excellent audio interviews with Amanda Blackley, with three navigators whose experience of the Doldrums has been very different. Aksel Magdahl felt that leading into the Doldrums had seriously hindered Ericsson 3’s chances, and talked about their struggle with the daily rota of clouds and squalls.

Aboard Team Russia, Wouter Verbraak was more philosophical about the snakes and ladders that his team had encountered, and gave some insight into how he balances his time between the home work downstairs and going out to play on deck.

A loquacious Andrew Cape (four words I didn’t think I’d ever write in the same sentence) on PUMA was starting to relax, revealing how, even at this early stage, their strategy has been to keep a close eye on the boats they think are the long-term dangers. And it sounds like revenge will be a dish best served cold on PUMA, as the equator virgins aboard the boat include the skipper, Kenny Read. Be afraid, be very afraid ...

So much for The Doldrums, Part 1 – turning to the crystal ball, the Race Viewer now has Predicted Routes - click on the link in the right hand sidebar for the tutorial. A full explanation of how the Predicted Routes are calculated and what it all means can be found in the FAQs on the Welcome tab in the Data Centre. And the accompanying new predicted numbers will pop up in the tables and graphs any day now ...

So from here on, you know as much as I do.

With everyone pretty much pointing where they want to go (compare the Heading (HDG) and the Bearing to Waypoint (BRG_WPT) in the Position Date Table), the routing is straightforward. Green Dragon should lead the fleet at the scoring gate at Fernando de Noronha, and pick up maximum points sometime tomorrow afternoon – but it’s too close too call between PUMA and Ericsson 4.

They should reach the gate with the trade winds still blowing strong. So the next job on the strategists’ to-do-list is dealing with the South Atlantic High, whose role I outlined in the Leg 1 Preview - we’ll take a closer look tomorrow as they approach the scoring gate.

The TEN ZULU REPORT (so called because it follows the 10:00 GMT fleet position report, and Zulu is the meteorologist's name for GMT).