Gustav Morin/Ericsson 3/Volvo Ocean Race
The rich have definitely been getting poorer – obviously, socialism is alive and well somewhere, even if it’s not here
Wednesday 28 January 2009 10:00 GMT
THE TEN ZULU REPORT, LEG 4, DAY 11
By Mark Chisnell
There are two kinds of Volvo Ocean Race this morning. One is dominated by the traditional weapons of weather charts, sail inventories and the rest. The other is all about pre-preg resin cure times, freight schedules and the critical paths of project management. While Telefonica Blue fights to hold off Ericsson 4 and PUMA at the finish in Qingdao – it’s a race to rebuild for the three boats that have now limped off the track in Leg 4.
Delta Lloyd joined Ericsson 3 in Keelung, on the north-western coast of Taiwan yesterday evening. Both have suffered serious problems with the structure in the bow of the boats, after another horrendous hammering from the Black Tide.
There’s an astonishing account of their experience from Ericsson 3’s Media Crew Member, Gustav Morin. While his skipper, Magnus Olsson relates in this audio interview how close they were to sinking. And just to prove that these boats bite even when it isn’t blowing 40 knots, here’s another video clip that’s not for the squeamish – as Anders Dahlsjo steps into the wrong place at the wrong moment.
But no one can afford to waste any time, and nor are they – Ericsson 3 has been hauled out for examination and repair, as the team brings the full extent of its resources to bear on the problem – with boat builders already in Taiwan. And we can now see footage of the damage to Telefonica Black, and her arrival in Subic Bay. There they were met by shore manager, Campbell Field, who was quickly planning their return to the field of battle.
Meanwhile, at 10:00 ZULU, there was another yacht race going on – where out on the water, Bouwe Bekking and his team aboard Telefonica Blue still held a respectable lead of just over 30 miles from their pursuit. But behind them, the overall race leader, Torben Grael’s Ericsson 4, had just conceded second place to Ken Read’s PUMA – nothing between them, with not much more than a couple of hundred miles to Qingdao. And while Ericsson 4 may be hindered in the lighter conditions by the mainsail damage visible in this video clip, according to navigator, Jules Salter, the pass was down to Ericsson 4 hooking up a fishing net.
A quick glance in the Environment Data Tables in the Data Centre will show you how much things have changed in the last 24 hours. The leading trio have True Wind Speeds (TWS in the Data Centre) in the mid-teens (ignore Ericsson 4’s wind data as the instruments are broken), and you can see from the graph how the Maximum Wave Height (MAX_WV_HGT) is down to a metre or so for the leaders. But so is the Sea Temperature (SEA_TEMP) – in this graph it plunged in parallel to the sea state, as they sailed out of the warm Kuro Shio current that has been causing all the boat-breaking trouble.
So, no more Black Tide, at least for the leaders, and at the moment they have very pleasant (if a bit chilly) sailing conditions, as Ken Read relates in his latest email. Yesterday’s weather analysis from Race Forecaster, Jennifer Lilly, pointed up the high pressure over South Korea that is currently controlling the race track. It’s shifting the wind clockwise, from north-east to easterly as they sail around the western edge of that high pressure centre (the wind flows clockwise around a high pressure in the northern hemisphere, and they have sailed from 7 o’clock towards 10 o’clock), and they are now all reaching straight at the finish.
That hoary old cliché – the rich get richer – has been reversed for this leg. The whole way from Luzon, Bouwe Bekking has seen the boats behind get a better deal from the Dragon Kings that run the wind and seas round here. The rich have definitely been getting poorer – obviously, socialism is alive and well somewhere, even if it’s not here.
Walker’s take on the conditions and his responsibilities is a ‘must-read’
A quick technical content warning for this section – the most recent losses came with the wind shift into the east, as the leaders approached the Chinese coast. A look at the boat tracks in the Race Viewer will show you how Bekking had to tack to port twice before he could sail a course on starboard to Qingdao. While behind him, Ericsson 4 put in one short tack, and PUMA sailed straight through on starboard. It’s all helped close the game up, and given PUMA the chance to come back from 200 miles behind two and a half days ago.
After another rough day, conditions have finally moderated for the benighted Green Dragon, with skipper, Ian Walker writing in an email from the early hours that they were almost racing at 100 percent again – apart from the broken forestay. It’s a particularly good email from one of the best communicators in the race, and Walker’s take on the conditions and his responsibilities is a ‘must-read’.
Their mood has correspondingly improved - Phil Harmer having admitted that he touched the bottom on what has been his toughest ever Volvo experience. But in the most recent email, from the boat, navigator Ian Moore sounded cautiously positive – ‘I shouldn't tempt fate, but for the first time in a while it feels like we might make it to Qingdao without having to stop again.’
Let’s hope so – but the Green Dragon does still face some challenges. The latest forecast is much more moderate than previous versions, and if it’s correct they won’t see much more than 20 knots of wind speed (TWS) before the finish. That’s the good news… the bad news is that they will be sailing upwind the whole way. The 550 miles that remain are all with the wind ‘on the nose’. And this is a northerly blowing from Siberia - so it’s cold…. these guys are just not getting any breaks.
In contrast, today’s Predicted Route looks relatively straightforward for the leading trio. But there’s potential for more and different agony in the details. The wind will continue to veer, rotate clockwise, into the south-east, and their True Wind Angle (TWA) will continue to get wider. Telefonica Blue already has her spinnaker up, as Bouwe Bekking reported, and the others should follow soon. The downwind conditions will last through this evening – more so for Telefonica Blue, as you can see from the wiggles in her track on the Predicted Route chart. She will have to gybe, while the others continue to sail straight at the finish, and the rich will get just a little poorer…
The north-easterly monsoon wind direction (TWD) will then start to reassert itself, and the final miles of this leg will be… yes, you’ve guessed it - upwind. The big difference will be that it’s light air – the forecast is also showing the wind speed (TWS) dropping steadily, going under five knots of breeze in 12 hours time. So the endgame could see one final, excruciating test, as the teams struggle to find the horsepower to get themselves over the finish line.
The first problem may be that everyone chose their sails for a heavy air upwind leg – the number of sails they have on board being limited by the rules. So a lot could depend on who has got all the right sails for the very different conditions they’re about to see – although I suspect the key sail will be the Code Zero, and I’m sure they’ve all got one of those.
It’s not going to be easy for anyone to get their heads around trickling along in five knots of breeze either - dealing with the completely different demands of light air, tactical sailing, after they’ve had seven kinds of s*!$ kicked out of them for the last few days. But I suspect it will require a particularly big effort from Bouwe Bekking and his crew – they, after all, have the most to lose, and Bekking is clearly a little anxious in that latest email.
Telefonica Blue’s challenge is Ericsson 4 and PUMA’s opportunity - as conditions get more flaky, so the chances of making a pass get higher. But either way, you may feel these guys have all suffered enough, and want to let off a few firecrackers and throw a bit of a party for Ao-Kuang tonight, and see if he’ll finally cut all these guys a bit of slack ...
The TEN ZULU REPORT (so called because it follows the 10:00 GMT fleet position report, and Zulu is the meteorologist's name for GMT).
Volvo Ocean Race