Oskar Kihlborg/Volvo Ocean Race
A SMALL CRAFT WARNING for strong winds is currently in effect for the starting area. Please monitor for the most recent update to this warning from Met Eireann.
SYNOPSIS: A week of warm temperatures and light air culminates in much cooler and windier conditions for the Leg 8 start in Galway. A look at the large-scale weather map shows a center of high pressure to the northwest of Ireland and low pressure to the east. The high pressure center was responsible for this past week's weather but it is now weakening and moving further from Ireland. Meanwhile, the low pressure center over southwestern England is strengthening as it tracks towards Wales.
These large-scale features are responsible for today's weather conditions at the start of Leg 8 in Galway. The pressure gradient between these two features is moderate, driving a NE'ly wind near 15 kts through Galway bay this morning. The pressure gradient tightens as the low strengthens and tracks towards Wales. Winds in the starting area respond by building to a strong 20 kts and backing to the NNE. Gusts of 25-30 kts also look likely at starting time. The low additionally causes periods of rain to move through Galway Bay.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Winds near 15 kts from the NE this morning. Expect gusts of 20-25 kts to cause shifty conditions. Backing and freshening into the upper teens during the late morning/midday. Sustained winds approach 20 kts from the NNE near starting time. Gusts of 25-30 kts with increased shiftiness. Left trend and a little more build through the afternoon. Winds in the outer bay and W/SW of the Aran Islands look 05-07 kts higher.
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy skies but could see occasional bright spots and breaks of sunshine. Intermittently wet as scattered showers move from NNE to SSW through the day. The thermometer will rise to a high near 12 C.
Detailed Wind Forecast for Starting Area (06 June 2009):Time Wind Speed Wind Direction (True)(LT) Mean Range Mean Range0900 16 14-19 035 015-055 1000 17 15-20 035 010-050 ...winds building1100 17 15-20 030 010-050 ...backing with increasing speed1200 18 16-21 030 005-050 ...puffs cause shifty conditions1300 18 16-21 025 005-045 ...gusts 25-30 kts1400 19 17-22 025 005-045 ...5-7 kts stronger outside bay1500 19 17-22 020 000-0401600 19 17-22 020 000-0401700 18 16-21 025 005-0451800 18 16-21 025 010-050 ...easing/veering late
HEDGE: Forecast Confidence: AVERAGE.1) Forecast models have good consensus today with a similar large-scale setup and resulting winds. All models indicate fresh to strong wind speeds and a flow between the N/NE. At this time it is only a matter of how much strengthening and backing occurs.
2) Winds could be a little higher if the low is stronger or tracks closer to Ireland. If winds are stronger do not expect sustained speeds much over 25 kts and gusts greater than 35 kts. A weaker or further east low could cause slightly lighter speeds but sustained winds of at least 15 kts are very likely at starting time.
3) A backing flow accompanies a build in wind speed. If winds are stronger than forecast in the wind table then expect a more left flow from the N. Lighter winds will be further right from the NE.
4) In Galway Bay expect a freshening and veering as the wind moves from the shoreline to the center of the bay. The strongest winds will occur in the outer portions of the bay, especially near and west of the Aran Island. These stronger winds could reach 20-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts near starting time.
EXTENDED FORECAST:For those staying in Galway winds moderate slowly to 15 kts and eventually 10 kts overnight and on Sunday with a veering to the NE/ENE. Fresh to strong winds on Monday and a more moderate breeze for Tuesday. Showers likely tonight and possible on Sunday as clouds gradually decrease. Daytime highs near 11 C and overnight lows of about 7 C.
Matthew Sanders