Tip-toeing round ice country

Wednesday 20 May 2009 10:00 GMT

THE TEN ZULU REPORT, LEG 7, DAY 5

By Mark Chisnell

Tip-toeing round ice country, it’s an all-out effort not to mention the T-word today, (although everyone else has been) as the fleet raced away from the Grand Banks, skirting the ice exclusion zone, crossing the last vestiges of the ice-strewn Labrador Current and reaching for the fog-free warmth of the Gulf Stream.

After a frenzied night of battle, Telefonica Black had fended off all challenges for her lead and was still in control at the corner of the ice box. And by 10:00 ZULU this morning, the fleet had covered about two thirds of the 175 mile eastward trek along the southern edge of the exclusion zone. Behind Black, Ericsson 4 was up to second and Telefonica Blue had powered back into contention. All the gaps had opened as each boat got round the corner and extended, while those behind were still sailing upwind.

The wind was blowing from the south, around the mid-teens, and providing some fast miles. There was a surprising amount of north-to-south leverage for a short, straight-line eastward dash, with PUMA and Delta Lloyd investing in a position to the south, looking for a Gulf Stream pay-off.

First up, a little retrospective from yesterday’s scoring gate dust-up – there’s a brilliant .tv clip from PUMA, while Telefonica Blue gave their side of it in an email from Bouwe Bekking. And Green Dragon’s skipper, Ian Walker was happy with their strategy in his audio interview yesterday with Amanda Blackley.

Jules Salter also talked to Amanda, expressing his disappointment with Ericsson 4’s third at the scoring gate. But looking ahead, he indicated that they were waiting for a wind shift as a key feature in the race to the south-west corner of the ice box.

And that’s where the TEN ZULU left everyone yesterday morning - headed south on port tack, and expecting a wind shift to the south. The strategic problem was when to tack to starboard for the corner of the ice box. And it was a version of this question that Green Dragon offered to the Virtual Gamers yesterday morning.

The answer that came back was a 50/50 split between tacking on the starboard layline, and tacking on the shifts up the middle. That may not mean much to some of you, and this topic is pretty technical. But I’ll have a quick stab at it, although you might want to skip this and the next paragraph. In a perfect world, the right answer would be tacking on the starboard layline, because tacking is so expensive in these boats.

But tacking exactly on the starboard layline from over 100 miles away was next to impossible. It required perfect anticipation of the wind shift. The plan would be that as the shift arrived the boat remained sailing upwind, but slowly changed course with the changing wind direction, until it was pointing at the corner of the ice box. Any time spent reaching, or on starboard tack after the shift arrived would be a loss maker.

In the end, no one made it to the corner cleanly, everyone had to take several hitches to the south. If we look at today’s graph of True Wind Direction (TWD) and True Wind Speed (TWS) we can see that the wind only went to the south in fits and starts through the late evening yesterday. And given that they were all arriving at the corner of the ice box from about 01:00 ZULU onwards, the shift was too late to be of much help.

And by then there was another game in town. If I started a paragraph “Two hundred miles north of the Azores...” most of us would almost certainly be thinking blue skies, sunshine, trade wind sailing and t-shirts. But the fleet is just a couple of hundred miles north of the latitude of the Azores and it’s anything but t-shirt weather. Such is the power of oceanic currents to modify climate, and the fleet have had the opportunity to harness some of that power.

Green Dragon’s skipper, Ian Walker, offered the option to the gaming community: “About 10 miles to the south of the IEZ (ice exclusion zone) there is a loop of the Gulf Stream which should have some easterly going current. The dilemma is whether to sail the shortest course or to sail the extra distance and hope to get some assistance from the Gulf Stream.”

The gamers overwhelmingly thought Green Dragon should stay close to the edge of the ice box, but initially, Walker thought differently. Along with Delta Lloyd and PUMA, Green Dragon started out positioned about 15 miles south of it, although unlike the other two, Green Dragon has subsequently rejoined the line of the main group, much closer to the edge of the exclusion zone.

There’s no doubt that the Gulf Stream was out there. In his most recent email, Telefonica Black’s navigator, Roger Nilson related how their strategy for the wind shift to the south (he calls it a ‘right-hand’ shift) didn’t quite work out because the shift was delayed. But then he goes on to describe how they picked up the Gulf Stream for a couple of hours. Each time they went south they found warm water, clear skies and a southerly breeze, each time they edged back to the north they found cold water, fog, and a more south-easterly breeze.

The weird changes in conditions are featured in this .tv clip with Ericsson 4’s watch captain, Stu Bannatyne, along with some of that frenzied tacking action.

While it does seem like the boats that have been positioned more to the south for longer on the approach to the ice box had the better of it, the $62.50 question (it’s deflation), will be whether that Gulf Stream jet was still out there to compensate for the extra distance that Delta Lloyd and PUMA have sailed to look for it.

The latest Sea Temperature (SEA_TEMP) data doesn’t look that hopeful for them, as you can see in this graph, the numbers show them back in the Labrador Current with everyone else. And as we went to press, they were both coming back into line, with PUMA having lost out to Telefonica Blue, who stayed north.

One boat that has definitely been suffering was Ericsson 3, slowed by damage, as reported by navigator, Aksel Magdahl yesterday. They have now changed to the spare daggerboard, as related by Media Crew, Gustav Morin, and seen in this .tv clip. Nice work, good job they were carrying it. Unfortunately, if they also damaged the fairing on the keel fin, it will still slow them up, just as it did Green Dragon on the final run into Cape Town in leg one.

This time around, Ian Walker can look forward to the downwind action starting up, and he was in that audio interview. It won’t be long now, with the overall picture still the same as yesterday. Unfortunately, the Predicted Routing threw a wobbly at 07:00 ZULU, and while it will hopefully be fixed for the 10:00 ZULU Report, I’ve had to go old school again. Today’s image shows the boat positions at 07:00 ZULU this morning, and the weather for 18 hours time.

By then, the fleet will be around the south-east corner of the ice box and headed north-east, and you can see the expected low pressure system at the top of the picture. It’s compressing the isobars between it and the high pressure, which is being pushed off to the south-east. That’s setting up a strengthening wind, shifting to the south-west. The fleet will ride this up the eastern side of the ice box, and on to Galway. Hold onto your hats, it’s gonna get wild.

No Comments in yesterday’s TEN ZULU, judging by the huge pile of competition entries it looks like you’ve all been too busy entering to contribute - that jacket is still up for grabs...

Competition

We’ve managed to blag a lovely Volvo Ocean Race jacket to give away – as worn by the Volvo Ocean Race team. We’ve got a question that will really test your sailing knowledge, or your ability to use Google anyway. So, which famous yacht and skipper won the 1905 Kaiser’s Cup in the first ever trans-Atlantic yacht race?

The first correct answer drawn from the hat by our Chief Duty Officer will be adjudged the winner. Please send your answers to webmaster@volvooceanrace.org. Entries close 23:00 GMT on Thursday, 21 May. The winner will be announced on Friday.

The TEN ZULU REPORT (so called because it follows the 10:00 GMT fleet position report, and Zulu is the meteorologist's name for GMT).

Welcome to the TEN ZULU Comments Section.

I’ve had my say, now this is where you get to have yours - we want to hear your opinion on who’s fastest, who’s smartest and who’s just plain lucky. But it is fully moderated (so bad language, personal abuse, repetition etc won’t be accepted), and sometimes it might take a while for your words to get cleared - don’t expect them to appear instantly, but we’ll get there eventually ...

www.markchisnell.com

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