The pace quickens

Thursday, 21 May 2009 10:00 GMT

THE TEN ZULU REPORT, LEG 7, DAY 6

By Mark Chisnell

The safety car was out of the way this morning as the fleet cleared the ice exclusion zone. Now there’s nothing between the fleet and Galway but broad Atlantic Ocean and a big ol’ low pressure system.

The wind has swung to the south-west and as the pace quickened, Ericsson 4 blew right by Telefonica Black to grab the lead. Roger Nilson was right to be concerned in his conversation with Amanda Blackley.

Just before 07:00 ZULU this morning, Ericsson 4 was leading the fleet downwind in excess of 25 knots of south-westerly wind, headed for their long-standing date with the cold front. The fleet was ranged behind them, to the north-west were PUMA, Telefonica Blue and Delta Lloyd; to the south-west were Telefonica Black, Green Dragon and Ericsson 3. The split was a result of the differing strategic calls of the last 24 hours, and it’s been a lot easier to make for virtual sailors than real ones – more on that one later.

The eagle-eyed amongst you will notice that I said just before 07:00 ZULU in the above paragraph, rather than 10:00 ZULU. There are technical problems with the Position Reports at the moment, normal service will be resumed as soon as possible – but today’s data graphs and Position Report images are all based on everything received to 04:00 ZULU this morning.

We left the fleet with most of them sailing in line astern formation along the southern edge of the ice exclusion zone. PUMA and Delta Lloyd had taken a position to the south to try and gain some extra benefit from the Gulf Stream. But by yesterday morning they were back into the cold water of the Labrador Current, and both boats slowly traded in their investment to rejoin the fleet at the south-eastern corner of the ice box.

It wasn’t all straight-forward, straight-line sailing along the ice exclusion zone. If you’ve ever wanted to see an America’s Cup dial-up and back down in the North Atlantic, then check this out - used to get weed or lobster pots off the keel of a Volvo Open 70.

The arrival order when they got to the corner of the box gave us a good snapshot of the fleet before they changed gear, hoisted spinnakers and headed for Galway in the Gulf Stream and some balmy weather. Ericsson 4 had already cut Telefonica Black’s lead to a few minutes at that point. It didn’t take them long to subsequently get past downwind, but they did have some help from a disorientated turtle looking for the Stream, as Roger Nilson related (no animals were harmed in the making of this email – which is more than you can say for Ben Hur).

Both boats were almost 45 minutes ahead of Telefonica Blue in third – but a good performance for Bouwe Bekking and his Spanish team, remembering that they were behind Delta Lloyd and beside PUMA once everyone had tacked at the scoring gate.

They now had a 15 minute advantage on Delta Lloyd and another 30 minutes on PUMA - Ken Read and co. not enjoying the race around the ice box. Delta Lloyd also suffering from that southern adventure, as Wouter Verbraak discussed with Amanda Blackley.

Green Dragon was another 50 minutes back from PUMA, with Ericsson 3 propping up the fleet thanks to her collision damage. It might be useful to keep these numbers in mind, because another strategic play has begun and we might not see the fleet back together with zero leverage much before Galway.

Once they got round that corner, the breeze started to build and shift to the south-west, as you can see from today’s graph of True Wind Direction (TWD) and True Wind Speed (TWS). We’re into the second half, a different kind of sailing now, downwind in big breeze.

Plenty to worry about for the navigators too, it’s all about balancing the competing demands of those two big systems that have been dominating the weather forecast for the last couple of days. If you’ve been following the race closely you’ll know all about the situation, otherwise, you could check out the end of yesterday’s TEN ZULU, or have a look at the latest analysis from Race Forecaster, Jennifer Lilly.

I’ve set up today’s first route image for the weather and boat positions at 04:00 ZULU this morning. And you can see the high pressure centred to the south-east of the fleet, while the low pressure system was just visible in the top left of the picture – those gnarly red arrows. The strategic issue that was dominating everyone’s thinking was all about balancing the short-term need to stay away from the light air in the centre of the high pressure to their south-east, against the longer-term need to position correctly for the incoming low pressure and its associated cold front.

Once the low pressure system arrives, it will bring a westerly wind with it, behind the cold front. And in a westerly breeze, the further south a boat is positioned, the better sailing angle she will have to Galway. So the choice was to gybe to the north overnight, and get into the stronger breeze fast. Or to head east, and hope for a quicker approach to Galway once the westerly arrived – delayed gratification?

The Virtual Gamers were all over it, with the Green Dragon’s two Ian’s (Walker and Moore) posing them the problem overnight. Unfortunately there was no consensus on the answer - evenly split three ways.

But it was not much different with the navigators on the real boats, as you can see from the 04:00 Position Report image. Green Dragon and Ericsson 3 had chosen the southern option, Telefonica Blue the north, with Ericsson 4, Telefonica Black, PUMA and Delta Lloyd in the middle.

If we roll forward to a Predicted image for both the weather and boat positions in 24 hours time, you can see that the high pressure has sunk out of the picture (literally and metaphorically) to the south. The low pressure will be dominating, steaming in from the west, dragging that westerly breeze behind it.

The Predicted Routing thinks that the fastest way to Galway will be to get north and bury the boat in the low pressure. In the real world, it may be a little different. We’ve seen before that the Volvo Open 70 doesn’t need 40 knots of wind speed to go fast - 25 will do nicely, thank you. And the boats certainly don’t need the five metre waves that are building with that low pressure system.

So we must add into the mix the need to position the boat in the optimal wind speed and sea state, as well as the optimal wind direction. This is going to be a real test of strategy, nerve and boat-handling – getting the boat in the right place and keeping it on the rails without any down time. Smartest and fastest will win this leg. Bringing it home to those pints of Ireland’s finest.

Competition

The last chance to win a lovely Volvo Ocean Race jacket – as worn by the Volvo Ocean Race team – competition entries close at 23:00 GMT tonight, Thursday, 21 May. But we’ve got a question that will really test your sailing knowledge, or your ability to use Google anyway. Which famous yacht and skipper won the 1905 Kaiser’s Cup in the first ever trans-Atlantic yacht race?

The first correct answer drawn from the hat by our Chief Duty Officer will be adjudged the winner. Please send your answers to webmaster@volvooceanrace.org. We’ll be announcing the winner here on Friday.

The TEN ZULU REPORT (so called because it follows the 10:00 GMT fleet position report, and Zulu is the meteorologist's name for GMT).

Welcome to the TEN ZULU Comments Section.

I’ve had my say, now this is where you get to have yours - we want to hear your opinion on who’s fastest, who’s smartest and who’s just plain lucky. But it is fully moderated (so bad language, personal abuse, repetition etc won’t be accepted), and sometimes it might take a while for your words to get cleared - don’t expect them to appear instantly, but we’ll get there eventually ...

www.markchisnell.com

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