WEATHER REPORT 21 May

Thursday, 21 May 2009 06:00 GMT

Past the cold waters of the Labrador Current, the temperatures have warmed; however, the conditions are expected to become more challenging for the second half of this leg, with the fleet headed north and the wind speeds increasing across the course.

Looking back, the teams have all been able to keep their speeds up, staying away from the light winds of the large high by just skirting the southern edge of the ice exclusion zone. As expected, the teams that pushed for the scoring gate ended up with tighter angles and more upwind sailing; however, the southeasterly position of the high and slightly stronger winds across the fleet helped everyone move quickly past the ice exclusion zone. As a result the miles continue to tick off, and the boats speeds have barely dropped below 10 knots since the start.

Currently the fleet is headed north, away from the high and towards a developing area of low pressure. The low has been deepening to the northwest of the fleet, and is expected to move northeast with the fleet through the rest of the week. For now it looks like the centre of the low will stay just behind (west) the fleet, but there is little doubt that the wind speeds are going to increase over the next few days.

The winds have been filling slowly, out of the WSW, since Wednesday afternoon, and are expected to increase more significantly as the fleet heads north. At some point early Thursday morning the cold front is expected to catch up with the fleet, driving winds to a max of 30+ knots with a period of possible showers and squalls. The winds will shift right with the front, but not significantly.

Looking ahead the front will pass quickly and the winds are expected to stabilize out of the west. The wind speeds will remain between 20 and 30 knots for Thursday and Friday, with the sea state building rapidly. The fleet will experience short period seas, building quickly to 5m. The further north the teams are, the stronger the winds and the larger the seas are likely to be.

Thus the real question of the day is how far north of the rhumb line to sail. Heading north means more wind. It also means more miles to sail in larger seas and that could mean greater risk of damaging the boat. So while the temperatures have warmed somewhat, the competition has not cooled at all, and we can expect the fast and tight racing to continue all the way to Galway.

Jennifer Lilly
Race Meteorologist